April 2022 Raleigh/Durham Housing Market Update:
There has been a lot in the news about the real estate market cooling. Though that may be true for some areas, we haven't seen it here yet. It's all based on supply and demand, so we need some build up in inventory (homes on the market) for that to happen. Right now inventory is too low for prices to go down, since it would take almost zero buyers for there to be a change towards a more neutral market versus a seller's market. Just a reduction in buyers won't do it with so few homes on the market.
As you can see in the table below the inventory levels have not gone up yet, and therefore prices are still going up. It would be nice to get back to a more balanced market with our 5% yearly price gains, so we'll see if that happens by the end of the year. As of right now it's looking like it will still be another 20% price gain year.
March 2022 Raleigh/Durham Housing Market Update:
Everyone is talking about how interest rates going up could affect the number of homebuyers out there. I think this is true, however when you have supply (sellers) at basically zero you also need demand (buyers) to be at almost zero to make any real change towards a slower market.
What will hopefully happen over the long term is our market will come down to 5-10% yearly gains (more of the average) instead of 20%+ yearly gains. We'll have to see over the coming months if things start to pull back just a little, or if there is enough demand to have prices increase over 20% again this year, since the supply of homes is so low.
February 2022 Raleigh/Durham Housing Market Update:
See below for our market data! Prices are still going up at the rate of about 24% per year because of the extreme lack of homes for sale in our market. What's interesting is the number of new homes is still going down, as sellers are more and more scared to sell since they won't be able to buy. 90% of the sellers that I'm working with today are moving out of state, out of the country, or are investors. With my buyer clients we are avoiding the "hot homes" that are going $100k-$150k over asking price, and instead focusing on the ones that need a little work or are further out.
January 2022 Raleigh/Durham Housing Market Update:
See below for the most current statistics for the entire Triangle market. The sales price increases for the entire region are staying strong so far at roughly 20% year/year. With the extremely low level of inventory (only 0.5 months) this will stay in that range until inventory increases. If you own a $400,000 house in the area you are currently making $80,000 or so a year in equity, which eventually has to slow down. Maybe by the end of the year we'll have some more inventory? One can only hope!
December 2021 Raleigh/Durham Housing Market Update:
For December I wanted to focus on a specific market in the Triangle, the Durham market. Though the market in the rest of the Triangle is similar, it's nice to look at some specific city data. I was most surprised by the roughly 30% increase in average sales price and median sales price for December 2021 versus December 2020. This means everyone who owned a $300,000 house in Durham made roughly $90,000 last year in equity. Hopefully we will get some extra inventory to increase our supply, so the supply and demand curve will equalize some. Demand with so many people moving to this area doesn't help either!
November 2021 Raleigh/Durham Housing Market Update:
This has been the most competitive fall we've experienced in a long time, possibly ever! Luckily at the time of this writing (early December) we are getting some of the holiday slowdown that typically starts about 4 weeks earlier. With the supply of homes still so incredibly low, don't expect a less intense Spring market this coming year. Barring anything catastrophic that drops demand down to near zero, we will be right back to our crazy market after the holidays are over. Please see the below video put out by the Triangle MLS, which discusses some of our current market numbers.
October 2021 Raleigh/Durham Housing Market Update:
October's market numbers are an almost mirror image of September's, with 0.8 months of inventory and a roughly 20% year/year price gain. On a positive note at least we didn't have a decrease in inventory!
The average price paid for a house is still around 3% over the asking price, which is amazing when you consider that includes all homes, even overpriced homes and homes that are 45 minutes outside of town.
Usually in the fall we have slight price decreases, however with the extremely low inventory levels prices are going up right now. On a personal note, it has been slightly easier to win bidding wars versus in the spring which likely means fewer buyers are competing compared to 6 months ago.
If we can somehow get some more inventory in conjunction with a decrease in demand then we can finally slow this market down to a more normal "4% gain/year" market.
September 2021 Raleigh/Durham Housing Market Update:
Where's our slower Fall market that we usually get every year? Looks like it may pass us this year, with prices still increasing at a fast rate. 0.8 months of inventory is just incredible when you consider 3 months is a strong seller's market and 2 months is an 'extreme' seller's market. What do you call 0.8 months?
We need a ton of new homes to be listed, or for demand to go to zero for there to be real change in the market. Until that happens prices will continue going up.
*Note explaining "months of inventory:" What this means is if no new homes were listed there would be 0 homes for sale in 0.8 months.
August 2021 Raleigh/Durham Housing Market Update:
The market is staying strong, more so because of very low supply versus high demand. Demand has dropped off a little, but without enough new inventory our market still continues upwards. Since January 1 the average home price has increased by 17.2%, and average days on market is down to 9.
June 2021 Raleigh/Durham Housing Market Update:
With the greatest price increases since 1999, June was another busy month. We are finally getting more inventory, which will hopefully bring the market back to our usual 4-5% yearly appreciation. We just aren't used to these huge California-style price gains!
Supply is still incredibly low, but demand has dropped off from the crazy post-pandemic highs. With an increase in supply it will be a much better market to buy in...that is unless you like competing against 17 other buyers and paying $75,000 over asking price! Fingers crossed it will play out this way.
May 2021 Raleigh/Durham Housing Market Update:
It was the busiest month the Triangle market has ever seen, with the most intense bidding wars as well. This data is being added in early June, and the market is hopefully on a more normal pace now, with things backing off just a touch in the past week. It's too early to tell however.
April 2021 Raleigh/Durham Housing Market Update:
The market is still getting hotter, with as-is addenda more common now as well (this wasn't a thing in the past). Hopefully at some point we will get a little more supply! Homes get anywhere from 5-30 offers in the current market, so lots of competition.
February and March 2021 Raleigh/Durham Housing Market Update:
We are at the 1 year mark now, and if anybody had asked me what I thought the market would have been like I would not have guessed it would be the most extreme seller's market the area has ever experienced. Without a major economic or other drastic change, home prices in the Raleigh/Durham area should go up around 15% this year. This would be a new record! It's all down to supply and demand: we have very few homes to sell and twenty buyers for every one seller. Hopefully with prices increasing it will encourage more homeowners to sell. Fingers crossed!
It's not uncommon for a $400,000 house to go for $465,000 in the current market, with the buyer covering the gap between the appraised value and the contract price. It's a great time for sellers, but a difficult time for buyers.
December 2020 and January 2021 Raleigh/Durham Housing Market Update:
We are not getting the listings we need! There is so little supply that most listings that are well prepped for the market are going over asking price. The rule of thumb for a sellers market is anything under 4 months of inventory supply (meaning if no other homes came on the market then all supply would be exhausted in 4 months). We are now at 0.9 months in some parts of the Triangle. See below table for Durham: